BillionToOne, Inc. [BLLN] — Catalyst Calendar (Task 6)

⚠️ SUPERSEDED IN PART — 2026-07-29

The position verdict in this document is retired. Under the current framework (references/criteria.md, 2026-07-29) the memo outputs an analysis, not a position. Whether an analysis justifies a position is a question about a particular book, and two books answer it differently.

The Gate block and the Gate 4 expected-return arithmetic below are also superseded, by the named Criteria (each with a type: BINDING or MEASURED, returning PASS / FAIL / INDETERMINATE), the reverse-DCF implied-path test, and a separate 12-month target.

→ Current analysis: BLLN_Criteria_and_Valuation_2026-07-29.md

Everything else here — the research, the evidence, the mechanism work — stands. Residual references to "Watchlist" in the prose below are the historical record of the 2026-07-28 assessment and are left intact deliberately.

Spot $133.64 (2026-07-28). Position verdict retired 2026-07-29 — the $105.00 level below is retained as a reference price, not as a conversion trigger for a verdict that no longer exists.

#	Date	Event	What it tests	Upgrade threshold	Downgrade threshold
C1	~early Aug 2026 (est. — Q1 reported 2026-05-06; no date announced yet)	Q2-2026 results	The single most important catalyst: does organic sequential growth re-accelerate from +5.4% to the ~8–10% the FY guide requires?	Revenue >$120m and organic sequential (ex true-up) >+9% and FY guide raised a third time	Revenue <$114m, or organic sequential <+5%, or any guidance cut
C2	Q2-2026 print	Prior-period true-up disclosure in the 10-Q revenue note	Whether headline growth is being carried by retroactive re-pricing	True-up <3% of quarterly revenue	True-up >5% of quarterly revenue for a second consecutive quarter
C3	Q2-2026 print	Overall ASP (was $571, +28% YoY)	Whether the payor-contracting engine has room left after reaching ~90% of US covered lives	ASP >$590 sequentially	Any sequential ASP decline
C4	H2 2026	Northstar Response MolDX / Medicare coverage decision	Management targets year-end. Oncology ASPs "anticipated to increase materially" on award	Coverage granted → oncology ASP step-up; a leg of the Gate 2B variant	Denied or deferred into 2027
C5	By 31 Dec 2026 (management guidance)	Tumour-naive MRD launch	The entire long-run oncology case. Data to be "published concurrently at launch"	Launches on time with peer-reviewed validation data → satisfies Gate 2B leg 1	Slips past H1-2027, or launches without published validation
C6	~Mar 2027	FY2026 10-K	Whether ICFR material weaknesses are remediated	Remediation complete and stated	Still unremediated, or new weaknesses identified
C7	Dec 2027	ADVANCE study primary completion (NCT07643896, N=1,000, recruiting since 2026-01-10)	Largest US prospective prenatal validation; supports guideline expansion	Positive readout supporting guideline inclusion	Miss or delay
C8	~1 Aug 2027	Union City lab commencement (8-K, 2026-06-23)	62,659 sq ft, 12-year term, >3x oncology-dedicated lab space, +16% total facility	On-time build-out signals oncology volume conviction	Delay or renegotiation signals demand shortfall
C9	Ongoing, monthly	ClinicalTrials.gov registrations by BillionToOne	The best free leading indicator on the oncology vector. Currently 3 studies, zero MRD	Any registered MRD or screening trial appears	12 months with no new oncology registration
C10	Ongoing, bi-monthly	FINRA short interest	Currently 10.51%, 3.6 days to cover, declining	—	A rise above ~15% of float would change the Gate 5 read
C11	Ongoing	Form 4 filings	Watching for the signal that actually carries weight — opportunistic buying at market prices, of which there has been none	Clustered multi-insider open-market purchases	Sustained selling beyond routine post-lock-up diversification

Free monitoring items requiring no earnings call (per the ISRG precedent of separating these out):

C9 — https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies?query.spons=BillionToOne — monthly, free. Current state: 3 studies, 0 MRD. This is the single best leading indicator for the oncology vector.
C10/C11 — EDGAR submissions JSON for CIK 0002070849, filtering forms 4 and 144.
PubMed — Northstar Select liquid biopsy currently returns 1 publication. Any material rise is direct evidence on Gate 2B leg 1.

Handoff: ongoing maintenance of this calendar passes to the equity-research:catalyst-calendar and equity-research:thesis-tracker plugin skills rather than being rebuilt from scratch at each refresh.